March Madness is here and it’s bracket season. I will help you fill out your bracket for this year’s madness in March. I will break down each first round matchup in each region starting in the South and ending in the Midwest. After that, I will break down my predictions for the second round in the region and then it goes to watching and seeing how many I got wrong because nobody can predict what happens in March. Some metrics that will be used are stats from barttovik.com, and the eye test from games that I have watched or highlights, for reference I have watched at least bits and pieces of just about any game that I had time for so probably over 150 games this year.
First Round
#1 Auburn vs #16 Alabama State/#16 Saint Francis
The number one overall seed Auburn has had some struggles recently losing three of their last four to end the year but this is pretty much a first round bye as are most 1 vs 16 games (looking at you Purdue and Virginia). Looking at Auburn for most of the year this was undoubtedly the best team in the country by far. They are the number one team in the country in terms of offensive efficiency and twelfth in defensive efficiency despite not forcing many turnovers and they have one of the best players in college basketball with Johni Broome. Alabama State is who I have winning the play in game based on the fact that they can shoot threes and they take care of the ball. The only way that Alabama State wins the game is if they somehow stay close with Auburn because they are knocking down threes and their defense improves not only in the coverage but the rebounding has been rough at times this year for the Hornets. My prediction, Auburn.
#8 Louisville vs #9 Creighton
Both of these teams have had really good seasons and it is unfourtanate that we have to see this matchup so early (in fact the it’s the first game on Thursday). Louisville has revived their program making the tournament for the first time since 2019. Pat Kelsey has got the Cardinals more wins this year than they have gotten in the last three seasons combined. Yet somehow they only got the eight seed with 27 wins I won’t get into the seeding questions that I had but I do think Louisville got unlucky with this draw. Creighton has been very good at times when Kalkbrenner and Ashworth are healthy. The two should be well rested and healthy for this game. I expect this game to be close and the free throw shooting might be a big difference in this one and Creighton has one of the best free throw shooters in the nation with Ryan Kalkbrenner. The offensive and defensive efficiencies are very close with Louisville having a little edge in offense and Creighton a little better defensively. I look at this game to be won on the turnover margin and Creighton is one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to forcing turnovers and watching the two teams I think Lousiville comes away with this one in a very tight contest. My prediciton Louisville.
#5 Michigan vs #12 UC San Diego
Ah yes, the dreaded 5-12 matchup. If there is ever an upset pick that will be picked a lot it is this one. I have watched a lot of Michigan basketball this year and they can be the most fun team to watch for six possessions in a row and then be the most infuriating team for another six possessions. Michigan is getting hot at the right time though as they just won the Big Ten Tournament after finishing the regular season on a three game losing streak to Illinois, Maryland, and Michigan State all teams that are in the tournament. They will definitely have the size advantage in this one as the tallest player at UC San Diego is 6’10 and their second tallest player is 6’8. This should be an advantage for Area 50-1 with Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. The only issue is Danny Wolf every now and again wants to throw it away a million times. Michigan is ranked 328th in turnover rate this year so that opens the door for UC San Diego who has the second best defensive turnover rate in the nation. UC San Diego also shoots the ball very well eighth best in the country in terms of three point rate. Michigan is going to have some open looks from behind the arc as the Tritons are one of the worst three point defenders and if Michigan is hitting then this should be a breeze but the shooting has gone way downhill for the Wolverines in the back half of the season. They were one of the top 50 three point shooting teams in the first half of the year but now they have fallen down to 194th. If Michigan hits their threes then they will be able to take away the threat of a double team on Goldin inside because the defense has to respect the three but if not then UC San Diego can sit down low on Goldin. This will be a very close game but my prediction gives Michigan a slight edge with the size advantage that Vlad Goldin has and the tournament experience on their team.
#4 Texas A&M vs #13 Yale
We all remember last year when Yale was also a 13 seed and knocked off number 4 Auburn can they do it again to another SEC team? Yale is a very well coached team by James Jones who prioritizes maintaining possession of the ball and taking care of it as they are 19th in turnover rate. While they are a fairly decent offensive team they are a very bad three point shooting team and also very bad at defending them. Thankfully for them, the Aggies aren’t a very good free throw shooting team either. Expect a slugfest in this one with defense taking center stage as both teams are in the top half of the country in defensive efficiency. This game is a toss up in my eyes and that tends to favor the underdog rebounding is going to be huge in this game with Texas A&M being the best team in the nation in offensive rebounding but Yale has good size inside we will see what happens. My prediction, Yale in an upset.
#6 Ole Miss vs #11 San Diego State/#11 North Carolina
Another trendy upset pick is the 6 vs 11 and this one will be close. I pick SDSU to beat North Carolina in the play in game and they will give Ole Miss a good fight. Ole Miss has been able to find ways to win in spite of their poor rebounding. They win because they are decent inside and they are great at not turning the ball over and forcing turnovers on defense. That is what is going to win this game. Turnovers both of these teams are great at turning their opponent over but Ole Miss has done this against the SEC I like Ole Miss to win the turnover battle and win the game. My prediction, Ole Miss.
#3 Iowa State vs #14 Lipscomb
This one is pretty clear cut in the public’s eyes. Everybody has Iowa State winning this game. Iowa State is better in every single category than Lipscomb. But, this game will be close. Iowa State star point guard Keshon Gilbert is out for the tournament. Lipscomb has an opening. My prediction, Iowa State. It doesn’t matter I’m not even sure how Lipscomb got this high of a seed.
#7 Marquette vs #10 New Mexico
Over the last 15 years, the 7 vs 10 game has been one of the worst games for the underdog. New Mexico has had a nice ride this year and Marquette has also had quite the year out of the Big East and I think that this game will be close early. It will be close early until the three pointers matter. Marquette is 40th in the country from behind the arc, New Mexico is 333rd. Fun year for the Lobos but it should end here. My prediction, Marquette.
#2 Michigan State vs #15 Bryant
Looking at this matchup you would think that this is your average 2 vs 15 blowout but it might not be. Bryant could make this interesting. Looking at both of these teams side by side the rebounding is pretty even, they both are good at taking care of the ball, they take good shots, and neither team can hit a three. The biggest thing is the competition that they have faced, Michigan State has done this against some really good teams and they just have more star power than Bryant and that is going to be the difference. Now if the stars play horribly then maybe just maybe Bryant shocks the world but it probably won’t happen. My prediction, Michigan State, closer than you think though.
First Round Recap
That is the first round in the South Region of this bracket. Just to recap the teams advancing to the weekend are, Auburn, Louisville, Michigan, Yale, Ole Miss, Iowa State, Marquette, and Michigan State. The matchups will be Auburn vs Louisville, Michigan vs Yale, Ole Miss vs Iowa State, and Marquette vs Michigan State.
Second Round Matchups
#1 Auburn vs #8 Louisville
The SEC and ACC have been on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of the Power 5 basketball conferences. These two teams, however, are not on opposite ends of the spectrum. Looking at the metrics Auburn has the higher peaks but also the lowest valley in this matchup, Louisville is a well-rounded team led by Chucky Hepburn. Auburn’s biggest weakness is they just keep fouling. They are the 312th team in the country in terms of fouling on defense. I like what Lousiville has done this year but can they stop Johni Broome? I don’t know, Auburn is the most efficient offensive team in the country for a reason and that reason is Johni Broome. My prediction, Auburn by 4.
#5 Michigan vs # 13 Yale
This game will be must see TV. Yale riding high off of another first round upset up against former Yale star Danny Wolf. Michigan has a history in games like this where when a team has a great defense Michigan exposes them and blows them out (2013 VCU). I don’t think they can do that as that 2013 team was loaded. In this one whoever wins will have to win in a battle and Michigan is battle tested. Yale knows how to force turnovers but Michigan has started shooting the ball much better and after nine first half turnovers vs Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship they managed to only have two in the second half. Yale is one of the worst three point shooting teams and three point defenses that could very well be the difference in this one. My prediction, Michigan.
#3 Iowa State vs #6 Ole Miss
Iowa State comes into this game looking to advance to their third Sweet Sixteen in four years. Ole Miss looks to tie their program’s deepest run ever. While Iowa State has been very good they have had to deal with a lot of injuries and that may catch up to them. They are facing a very good Ole Miss team in this one and this is a very balanced match if you look at the stats over the course of the season it is very even. Since it is very even you look to injuries you see Iowa State is being hit with the injury bug what does that leave? My prediction, Ole Miss.
#2 Michigan State vs #7 Marquette
The rematch of last year’s second round game that the Spartans shocked the Golden Eagles and this year the seeds are reversed. These teams are very even in the offensive categories so that of course leaves defense and defense does win championships. Michigan State has a great defense and that is why they are among the top chances to win the championship I think that they will play very well against Marquette. Both teams are about the same as the last time they played one of the main differences is the Big Ten Freshman of the Year is on Michigan State his name, Jase Richardson. My prediction, Michigan State.
Final Recap
This region could very well produce the winner of this whole tournament as it is probably the most competitive region in the last 10 years. There shouldn’t be too many upsets in this region just because of the strength of these top teams. That being said every time we think that the exact opposite happens and a 12 seed comes out on top. March Madness is the most impossible thing to predict so my predictions do mean next to nothing but I hope you do take them into consideration when you fill out your bracket. The teams that I have advanced to the Sweet Sixteen in this region are Auburn, Michigan, Ole Miss, and Michigan State. Looking at these four teams I would be thrilled to watch every single one of the possible matchups in the Elite Eight but if I had to pick one that I want to see the most is Michigan vs Michigan State. They have played twice and Michigan State won both games, but it is hard to beat a team three times in a season and multiple teams have avenged a sweep in the regular season en route to championships. Stay tuned to our website here at PNN as we will have more of these articles out with my breakdown of all the regions soon.
Marie Roach 
CJ Vantine